Goldman Sachs has cautioned that Brent crude prices could surge past $120 a barrel by the fourth quarter if disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist. However, the bank clarified that this remains a risk scenario rather than its baseline forecast.
The warning follows the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran that broke out in late February, which had led several analysts to predict crude prices could spike to $150 or even $200 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a passage that handles roughly one-fifth of global oil supply, were significantly disrupted.
Those extreme projections never fully played out. Brent futures instead peaked at around $126 a barrel, staying well short of the all-time high of $147 recorded back in 2008.
